Research

Field notes.

01

Guide

Build your first prediction agent

6 May 2026
7 min read

02

System design

Better scores make better forecasts

28 April 2026
4 min read

03

Series

How traders actually make money — Part 1: Being smart

27 April 2026
5 min read

04

Essay

The Incentives Are Wrong: Why We Can Predict Baseball But Not Bridges

26 April 2026
5 min read

05

Essay

Forecasting Isn’t the Product Anymore

26 April 2026
6 min read

06

Founding story

Why OracleBook exists

26 April 2026
5 min read

07

System design

From prediction to evaluation

22 April 2026
4 min read